Ukraine on the Brink: Why a Russian Victory Could Reshape the Global Order

By Atul Pagyal, Expert in International Affairs

In a conflict that has drawn unprecedented global attention, the war between Russia and Ukraine appears to be approaching a decisive phase. Despite overwhelming financial, military, and humanitarian aid from Western nations and their allies, Ukraine faces the stark reality of potentially surrendering or negotiating on Russian terms within the next two months. This article explores the underlying reasons for Russia's strategic upper hand, the shortcomings of Ukraine's resistance, and the profound implications for the West, NATO, and global geopolitics.

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Why Russia Is Winning

Russia's apparent momentum in the conflict can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Superior Artillery and Troop Strength:

According to multiple reports, including analyses by General Sir Richard Barrons and The Guardian, Russia maintains a five-to-one artillery advantage over Ukraine. This firepower, combined with an influx of fresh troops and innovative battlefield technologies, has enabled steady advances, particularly in strategic regions like Kharkiv and the Donbas.

2. Technological Adaptation:

Moscow has demonstrated adaptability in countering Western-provided weaponry. Delays in the delivery of advanced American arms and innovations in Russian drone and missile technology have significantly shifted the battlefield dynamics.

3. Legitimacy Through Retaliation:

Ukraine's alleged targeting of Russian civilian areas and high-ranking officials within Russian borders has allowed Moscow to portray its actions as justified retaliatory measures, garnering domestic and some international support.

4. Economic and Logistical Resilience:

Despite extensive Western sanctions, Russia has maintained its economic stability and supply chains. Strategic alliances with neutral or supportive nations, such as China and India, have provided Moscow with critical lifelines.

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Ukraine's Struggles: A Crisis Within

While Ukraine's resilience has been commendable, internal and external challenges are now undermining its efforts:

1. Desertion and Morale Crisis:

Reports of large-scale desertion within the Ukrainian military reflect a growing disillusionment among troops. The inability to secure decisive victories has eroded morale, with many soldiers questioning the sustainability of their fight.

2. Corruption in Aid Management:

Allegations of corruption and misuse of aid at both official and individual levels have marred Ukraine's image. These issues have fueled skepticism among donor nations, potentially leading to reduced support at a critical juncture.

3. Overstretched Defenses:

As Russian forces advance on multiple fronts, including Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s stretched defenses face severe shortages in ammunition, troops, and air defenses. The much-celebrated 2022 counteroffensive has proven insufficient to halt Russia's progress.

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A Blow to the West and NATO

A Russian victory or negotiated settlement on Moscow's terms would have profound implications for the global order:

1. Erosion of Western Credibility:

The failure to defend Ukraine despite substantial support would undermine the West's ability to project power and influence globally. It would embolden adversarial nations and diminish trust among allies.

2. NATO’s Strategic Dilemma:

NATO's collective deterrence strategy would face scrutiny, raising questions about the alliance's capability to counter major threats effectively. Eastern European members would particularly feel vulnerable to potential Russian aggression.

3. Economic and Political Repercussions:

The immense financial and military resources expended by the West, coupled with the failure to achieve a favorable outcome, could lead to domestic political backlash, especially in the U.S. and Europe.

4. Redefining Global Alliances:

A Russian victory would solidify Moscow's position as a key player in a multipolar world, strengthening its ties with nations that remained neutral or supportive during the conflict. This shift could mark the beginning of a new geopolitical era.

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Conclusion

The trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war is a stark reminder of the complexities of modern conflict. While Ukraine's resolve and the West's support have been remarkable, the combination of Russia's military advancements, strategic resilience, and Ukraine’s internal challenges have shifted the balance.

As the world watches closely, the outcome of this war will not only determine the fate of Ukraine but also reshape the global order. It will test the West's resolve, NATO's relevance, and the international community's commitment to justice and sovereignty. The coming months will be critical, and history will judge the actions—or inactions—of all parties involved.